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Markets, despite their collective expertise, are apparently destined to repeat history as irrational exuberance is followed by an equally irrational despair. Periodic bouts of chaos are the inevitable result.

Financial crises have been an unfortunate part of the industry since its beginnings. Bankers and financiers readily admit that in a business so large, so global and so complex, it is naive to think such events can ever be avoided. A look at a number of financial crises over the last 40 years suggests a high degree of commonality: excessive exuberance, poor regulatory oversight, dodgy accounting, herd mentalities and, in many cases, a sense of infallibility.

World in 2020 Try now

World in 2020

Access and compare forecasts for more than 50 indicators related to a country’s economic, demographic, and energy futures from leading international institutions. Assess the historic quality of forecasts with our Forecast Accuracy Tracking Tool™ and select the most accurate forecast to support your analysis.

40 Years in Financial Crises
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The History of the Economic Forecasts

Each year several influential global agencies publish their views on the economic situation in the world. We have collected end-of-year baseline forecasts of the 5 largest agencies (IMF, World Bank, OECD, UN and the European Commission) for each available country since 1998 into the one dataset. In this page, you can observe forecasts for 2014-2017, which were made by each of those agencies in previous years, and analyze the accuracy of the forecasts from the historical perspective. It is hard to believe, but the data clearly shows that even the near-term forecasts were not considerably better than the simplest possible forecasting...

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GDP per capita ranking 2016 | Data and Charts

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