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Each year several influential global agencies publish their views on the economic situation in the world. We have collected end-of-year baseline forecasts of the 5 largest agencies (IMF, World Bank, OECD, UN and the European Commission) for each available country since 1998 into the one dataset.

In this page, you can observe forecasts for 2014-2017, which were made by each of those agencies in previous years, and analyze the accuracy of the forecasts from the historical perspective.

It is hard to believe, but the data clearly shows that even the near-term forecasts were not considerably better than the simplest possible forecasting technique of using actual value for the current year to forecast the next year changes. Actually, in most cases this deadly simple and straightforward "rule of thumb" performed better than the forecasts of the global authorities (see the chart at the bottom of the page). However, it would be wrong to conclude that they are completely useless. It looks like when the agency's forecast differs from the previous year actual value significantlyit really means something. For example, in the end of 2009, all five organizations have correctly predicted the large economic rebound, which could not be forecasted only on the 2009-th numbers basis.

Dive deeper in the economic forecasts with our Forecast Tracking Tool.

World in 2020 Try now

World in 2020

Access and compare forecasts for more than 50 indicators related to a country’s economic, demographic, and energy futures from leading international institutions. Assess the historic quality of forecasts with our Forecast Accuracy Tracking Tool™ and select the most accurate forecast to support your analysis.

Материалы по теме

GDP by Country | Statistics from IMF, 1980-2021

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GDP is the single most commonly referenced figure to cover the entirety of a national economy and its trajectory in a single statistic. Measured on the basis of purchasing power parities (PPP), GDP can be used for comparisons among peer countries. Using purchasing power parity with GDP involves a decrease of bias in economy estimation as PPP takes into account the relative cost of local goods, services and inflation rates of the country. Looking at the GDP figures from historic perspective allows understanding on what phase is the economy of a country at the moment. The data on GDP from the World Bank covers the period for the last half of...

Мировой рейтинг стран по ВВП в 2015 году | Данные и Графики

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GDP per Capita by Country | Statistics from IMF, 1980-2021

The page provides an access to the GDP per capita data for different countries from the IMF's World Economic Outlook (WEO). The table shows the data on the GDP per capita measured in current prices as well as based on purchasing power parities (PPP). The chart at the right displays a country's GDP per capita as a share of GDP per capita of the United States. Take a look at other GDP-related dashboards: GDP: GDP by country from the World Bank |  GDP by country from IMF | World GDP ranking | World GDP GDP per capita: GDP per capita by country from the World Bank | GDP per capita by country from IMF | World GDP per capita ranking See...