IEA Oil Market Report (November)

Following are highlights from this month's IEA Oil Market Report:

World Oil Demand

• The IEA adjusted world oil demand growth for 2015 upward by 40,000 b/d this month as a result of better-than-expected performance from OECD Americas, Europe, other Asia, and China during the third quarter. IEA's estimate for 2015 world oil demand growth is now 1.5 million b/d, with total global consumption of 92.86 million b/d.
• For 2016, the IEA adjusted world oil demand growth downward by 40,000 b/d, mainly to reflect a high baseline effect in OECD Americas.
• World oil demand growth is now anticipated to be 1.25 million b/d, with total global consumption at around 94.11 million b/d.

World Oil Supply

• IEA expects non-OPEC oil supply to average 57.24 million b/d in 2015, an increase of 0.72 million b/d over last year. 
• IEA revised its oil supply estimates for OECD Americas and Africa downward. In contrast, it raised its estimates for other regions, particularly OECD Europe, other Asia, Latin America, and the Former Soviet Union, but these revisions only partially offset the downward revisions in the other regions.
• IEA now expects non-OPEC oil supply in 2016 to average of 57.11 million b/d, a contraction of 0.13 million b/d from 2015 levels. This is 0.29 million b/d lower than last month's forecast and is based on an expected steeper production decline in US shale plays, legacy wells outnumbering newly drilled wells, and the negative effects of capex cuts worldwide.
• Supply growth, however, was revised downward by 0.16 million b/d from the agency's estimate last month based on the prediction that US supply declines are likely to accelerate in the environment of persistently low oil prices.
• Production of OPEC NGLs is forecast to grow by 0.19 million b/d and 0.17 million b/d to average 6.01 million b/d and 6.18 million b/d in 2015 and 2016, respectively.

Source of data: IEA Oil Market Report, November 2015

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