The rapid influx of refugees and migrants across the Mediterranean Sea to Europe in 2015 was characterized by an increasing probability of death during this journey. Given the current rate of new arrivals in Europe via the Mediterranean Sea - 205,297 arrivals to date in 2016 - the odds of dying during the crossing are now about 1 in 81.
Given that the share of new arrivals to Europe (via Greece) overwhelming travel through Turkey, the more perilous journey from North Africa to Europe (via Italy) has had a lesser influence on the estimated death toll. Nearly 90 percent of sea arrivals to Europe originate from 10 countries, led by Syria, Afghanistan, and Iraq, countries from which refugees and migrants typically use the Turkey-Greece route. Migrants and refugees originating in North Africa - including those traveling from Nigeria and Gambia, among other African countries - have made up an estimated 84 percent of the deaths reported this year, according to data from the UN High Commissioner for Refugees.