2016 was an exceptional year for coal prices. The period of decline which began in 2011, was interrupted by the rapid growth. Coal prices grew by 7-10 percent in November modestly continuing a 24-29 percent growth in October. Since January, when the price of Coal reached a 10-year low, coal prices have rebounded by 100 percent.
This situation is attributable to several factors. First, it is the consequence of an implemented policy in China which aimed at reducing harmful emissions. China is the largest coal consumer and coal producer at the same time. The reduction in own-grown production led to the increase in coal imports. Second, not only China reduced its coal mining. Indian coal industry also had hard times. The strike of miners led to the crisis in the industry. The market was not ready for that and as result coal prices immediately began to soar.
Leading international agencies made the following Coal price predictions:
• The World Bank in its July commodity forecast report estimated that the price for coal will rise in 2016 to $58/mt against $57.5/mt in 2015. After that, the price will fall in 2017 to $55/mt. And since 2018, it will grow slowly.
• The IMF's June report revealed not a similar forecast. The IMF’s experts predict a growth in 2017 to $83.7/mt and a slight drop in 2018 to $76.2/mt.
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