Aluminum price grew by 4.3 percent in November 2016 compared to the previous month and by 17.3 percent from a year ago. The price of aluminum rose to record levels since June 2015, well over $1737 per metric ton. Such growth was driven by the significant decline of production in February 2016 when total production of aluminum fell to 4,184,000 metric tons from 4,729,000 metric tons in January 2016.
This situation is related to some extent to politics in China and higher prices of coal and other energy products. At this time, aluminum production in China reduced to 2,070,000 metric tons. It is the lowest value since 2013. However, by November 2016 production rose to record 5,003,000 metric tons in the world and 2,800,000 metric tons in China. Reserves were expected to be restored soon.
Leading international agencies made the following predictions of aluminum prices:
- The World Bank in its commodity forecast report estimated that the price for aluminum will fall in 2016 to $1575.5 per metric ton from $1665 in 2015, based on demand projections and energy price growth.
- The IMF's report revealed a similar expected decline from $1665 per metric ton in 2015 to $1604 in 2016 which will be followed by the period of growth.
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