Aluminum price grew by 4.3 percent in November 2016 and by 17.3 percent in comparison with November 2015. The price of aluminum rose to record levels since June 2015, well over $1737/mt. The prices growth has been driven by the significant decline of production in February 2016 when total production of aluminum fell to 4,184,000 metric tons against 4,729,000 metric tons in January 2016. This situation primarily related to politics in China and higher coal and energy prices. At this time aluminum production in China reduced to 2,070,000 metric tons. It is the least value since 2013. However, by November 2016 production rose to record 5,003,000 metric tons in the world and 2,800,000 metric tons in China. Reserves were expected to be restored soon.
Leading international agencies made the following aluminum price predictions:
- The World Bank in its commodity forecast report estimated that the price for aluminum will fall in 2016 to $1575.5/mt from $1665/mt in 2015, based on demand projections and energy price growth.
- The IMF's report revealed a similar expected decline from $1665/mt in 2015 to $1604/mt in 2016 after that the period of growth will start.
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